The 0.4% Peace: Why Prediction Markets Are Signal, Not Alpha
The data shows a market that assigns a 0.4% probability to a permanent peace...
Market Quotes
•
Kaitoshi
•
2026-07-24
Market Prices
BTC
Bitcoin
$64,106.7
-2.03%
ETH
Ethereum
$1,859.76
-1.09%
SOL
Solana
$74.29
-1.99%
BNB
BNB Chain
$565.4
-0.58%
XRP
XRP Ledger
$1.09
-1.52%
DOGE
Dogecoin
$0.0697
+0.71%
ADA
Cardano
$0.1640
-2.03%
AVAX
Avalanche
$6.26
-0.35%
DOT
Polkadot
$0.8148
+0.06%
LINK
Chainlink
$8.35
-1.24%
Event Calendar
202622
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Trend Tags
💡 Smart Money
0x3dfa...e7ca
Early Investor
+$4.7M
95%
0xb358...ab39
Market Maker
-$3.7M
91%
0x692d...923e
Arbitrage Bot
-$4.0M
63%
#liquidity analysis
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Fear & Greed
27
Fear
Market Sentiment
Altseason Index
43
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Market Cap
All →| # | Coin | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bitcoin
BTC
|
$64,106.7 |
| 1 |
Ethereum
ETH
|
$1,859.76 |
| 1 |
Solana
SOL
|
$74.29 |
| 1 |
BNB Chain
BNB
|
$565.4 |
| 1 |
XRP Ledger
XRP
|
$1.09 |
| 1 |
Dogecoin
DOGE
|
$0.0697 |
| 1 |
Cardano
ADA
|
$0.1640 |
| 1 |
Avalanche
AVAX
|
$6.26 |
| 1 |
Polkadot
DOT
|
$0.8148 |
| 1 |
Chainlink
LINK
|
$8.35 |
🐋 Whale Tracker
🔴
0xc55e...cc67
12m ago
Out
2,503 ETH
🔵
0x2aca...9155
30m ago
Stake
1,847,730 USDC
🔴
0x89d9...d961
30m ago
Out
17,369 BNB